Grŵp Defnyddwyr Ystadegau Economaidd Cymru, 20 Hydref 2026: cofnodion

Vanessa Allis (VA), Welsh Government

Rhys ap Gwilym (RaP), Bangor University

Lee Clarke (LC), Cardiff County Council

Peter Davies (PD), Senedd Cymru

Karen Deehan (KD), Welsh Government

Alex Fitzpatrick (AF), Welsh Government

Lloyd Fisher (LF), Vale of Glamorgan Council

Adam Hardy (AH), Manchester University

Steph Howarth (SH), Welsh Government

Martin Jennings (MJN), Senedd

Luned Jones (LJ), Welsh Government

Melanie Jones (MJ), Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University

Luke Michaelides (LM), Office for National Statistics (ONS)

Neil Paull (NP), Welsh Government

Cerys Ponting (CP), Welsh Government 

Jack Price (JP), Wales Centre for Public Policy

Sian Price (SP), Development Bank of Wales

Hayley Randall (HR), Welsh Local Government Association

Megan Williams (MW), Welsh Government

Sam Willson (SW), Transport for Wales

Speakers

Jonathan Bonville-Ginn (JBG), Welsh Government

Mark Hart (MH), Enterprise Research Centre, Warwick Business School

Tom Nicholls (TN), Welsh Government (Chair)

Chris Payne (CP), ONS

Richard Prothero, ONS

Minute taker

Aron Nyberg (AN), Welsh Government

Apologies

Julie Davies, Neath Port Talbot County Council

Max Munday, Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University

Will Perks, Welsh Government 

Heledd Rees, ONS Local

Nia Wyn Vaughan, Cyngor Gwynedd

TN opened the meeting, welcomed attendees and outlined the agenda. The presentations will be published online after the meeting (following speakers’ permission). Simultaneous translation was not provided as the minimum quota of ten percent was not met. TN noted the fifth item on the agenda, Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation (WIMD) 2025, would not take place as planned. TN proposed shortening the scheduled break to allow the meeting to finish earlier; members agreed.

JBG gave a presentation on the Welsh Government's economic priorities following the election. The government's principal economic objective is to improve productivity, with a cross-government ambition to halve the productivity gap between Wales and the UK over the next ten years.

JBG discussed challenges around measuring progress, noting the time lag in official productivity statistics. Welsh Government is therefore considering a wider range of indicators, including research and development expenditure, education and skills outcomes, and real wage growth.

JBG also provided an update on plans for a new Economic and Fiscal Commission. Research commissioned from Wavehill Consulting and Professor Calvin Jones is expected to identify gaps in Welsh economic evidence and analytical capability and help inform options for the Commission.

TN reflected on recent developments relating to devolution across the UK and highlighted opportunities for Wales to contribute to discussions on improving sub-national economic statistics. He noted that Welsh Government is engaging with ONS and other partners on these issues.

Discussion

MJN discussed the possible role of the proposed Economic and Fiscal Commission and similarities with existing institutions elsewhere in the UK.

TN noted that the Commission's remit remains under development but is expected to focus on economic evidence and analysis. Members also discussed wider challenges associated with measuring productivity and monitoring progress against long-term economic objectives.

LJ noted that a difficult budget situation may reflect on a reduced Improving Economic Statistics budget, with potential implications on Trade Survey for Wales, survey boosts and Input Output Tables developments.

RP gave a presentation on regional productivity statistics and ongoing development work. The presentation outlined current measures of productivity, including output per hour worked, and described the availability of productivity estimates at different geographic levels.

RP also provided an update on forthcoming productivity releases. Revisions to how ONS measures working hours and holidays will be published next month. ONS also discussed work to improve the timeliness and quality of sub-national productivity statistics. This included developments to regional GDP estimates.

The presentation also highlighted ongoing engagement between ONS and Welsh Government on productivity measurement and the use of regional statistics to support policy development.

Discussion

JBG asked whether revised estimates may affect productivity comparisons between Wales and other parts of the UK, due to different industry mixes.

RP noted that analysis of the impacts is ongoing and that a clearer picture will emerge once updated estimates are published.

MH, on behalf of Economic Intelligence Wales, presented research examining "Productivity Heroes", a group of businesses identified as increasing turnover faster than employment growth.

The analysis explored the characteristics of these firms and found that Wales has a slightly higher proportion of Productivity Heroes than the UK average. The presentation highlighted regional differences across Wales and outlined factors associated with stronger productivity performance, including leadership, skills development, innovation and investment.

MH also outlined plans for future research, including work to understand whether these firms sustain their performance over time and the wider factors influencing productivity growth.

Discussion

SH welcomed the presentation and noted its relevance to recent ministerial interest in measuring high-growth firms.

MH encouraged the use of the whole framework, not just productivity heroes, and the benefits of this indicator over the OECD definition

TN asked about relative productivity measures and selection bias conditional on survival.

MH replied that growth was more transient to periods of time. 40% of high growth firms in this framework didn’t exist 5 years later.

CP gave a presentation on the development of a Northern Ireland Consumer Price Index.

The project combines boosted local price collection with Northern Ireland-specific expenditure weights to provide additional insight into inflation experienced by households in Northern Ireland. CP outlined some early findings, which suggest differences between inflation experienced in Northern Ireland and that measured at UK level, particularly in relation to housing and household energy costs.

CP also provided an update on Household Cost Indices (HCI) and ongoing work towards Accredited Official Statistics status.

Discussion

TN welcomed the work and noted the potential for lessons to be applied elsewhere in the UK and asked whether the 5 years average in the Northern Ireland Living Costs and Food Survey (LCF) was due to the small sample.

CP replied that data-smoothing was necessary for the Northern Ireland LCF, however not used for the HCI due to bigger sampling.

TN thanked presenters and attendees for their contributions.

The next meeting will take place on 18 March 2027.