Gwyddoniaeth Ymchwil Tystiolaeth: modelu'r gaeaf 2026 i 2027 - Part 6: conclusion

The upcoming 2026 to 2027 winter season is expected to see a rise in respiratory viruses compared with the summer months, as is typical each year.

This leads to higher demand on primary care (GP consultations) and secondary care services (admissions, ED attendances).

The scenarios in this report give an insight into how these viruses may impact the demand for healthcare in Wales and help in planning for a surge in capacity that might be needed to accommodate these excess winter pressures.

Population-level behaviours such as uptake of vaccinations can amplify or mitigate winter pressures and represent an important source of uncertainty within winter planning assumptions.

Consideration of behavioural drivers, barriers and likely responses to public health interventions should therefore complement epidemiological and service capacity modelling when assessing potential winter impacts and identifying opportunities to reduce avoidable demand.

The modelling in this report estimates the greatest impact from respiratory illnesses on health care services in late December/early January this winter.

Over the winter months (1 September 2026 to 31 March 2027), there will be continued surveillance of respiratory admissions due acute respiratory viruses.

The winter modelling scenarios presented in this report will be utilised alongside short-term projections, which will be updated as additional data are collected throughout the winter and presented in regular surveillance reports.

Collectively, these models will serve as useful tools to support decision-making in healthcare planning across Wales.