Trosolwg o'r farchnad lafur: adroddiad ansawdd a methodoleg

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Relevance

This monthly bulletin is a compendium publication that brings together the latest statistics relating to the Welsh labour market.

This release provides more detailed information on the Wales Labour Force Survey (LFS) data than the corresponding Office for National Statistics (ONS) bulletin, and presents these estimates alongside other labour market measures for Wales. These statistics are used by the Welsh Government to monitor the headline statistics for the Welsh labour market as well as providing comparisons to the UK. The release complements the Welsh Economy in Numbers dashboard, which provides a broad picture of the Welsh economy.

The LFS remains the main source for headline labour market indicators at a Wales level. The larger sample of the APS allows for estimates at a local authority level and for sub-groups of the population.

Additional labour market information from the APS can be accessed via the quarterly Labour market statistics (APS) publication. This includes data for:

Welsh economic regions
long-term unemployment rates
youth unemployment
reasons for economic inactivity for males and females

The APS comprises the main variables from the LFS and covers 12-monthly periods. This gives a larger sample size than the LFS and produces more robust and reliable labour market estimates. APS data are published every quarter for a rolling annual period.

During the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic figures for employment from the LFS and APS included employees who had been furloughed.

This bulletin is used by other public sector organisations, businesses, academia and private individuals as a means of identifying the trends in the headline labour market statistics for Wales.

Welsh Government published a more detailed analysis of protected characteristics in the labour market in Wales on 16 December 2021. We welcome your feedback on this publication and priorities for future analyses; please see the contact details at the end of this release. Data is also currently available on StatsWales: employment and Nomis.

LFS estimates published on 17 December 2024 (ONS) were reweighted for periods from January to March 2019 for UK countries and regions, resulting in a step change in the data. Comparisons with periods prior to January to March 2019 are not strictly valid due to this discontinuity in the time series. The reweighted estimates incorporated latest ONS estimates of the size and composition of the UK population. UK estimates were reweighted back to June to August 2011.

On 3 December 2024, the ONS published an article exploring the Impact of reweighting on LFS key indicators: December 2024. On 19 December 2024, we published an article exploring the full impact of this reweighting on key indicators in Wales.

The ONS published revised LFS estimates for Wales in July 2026 from the period January to March 2020 due to a seasonal adjustment review. The impact of the revisions on the estimates is small, accounting for changes of 0.1 percentage points or less across most periods.

Accuracy

Some of the data in this bulletin is based on sample surveys meaning it is subject to sampling variability. The LFS is a sample survey and, as such, estimates obtained from it are subject to sampling variability. If we drew many samples, each would give a different result.

Tables 1a, 1b and 1c in the labour market overview report show the latest estimates and quarterly and annual changes for Wales alongside their respective 95% confidence intervals. We would expect that in 95% of samples the range would contain the true value. Due to the LFS five wave structure, this means it can be used to assess changes over 6 quarters or more. The confidence intervals have been calculated using data that are not seasonally adjusted, with the relevant sampling errors produced then applied to the seasonally adjusted data.

If none of the quarterly or annual changes are statistically significant, then the recorded changes did not exceed the variability expected from a sample survey of this size. Therefore, they do not provide strong evidence of a real change in the underlying population.

ONS have stated that there is an increasing challenge to maintain response rates for the LFS. This has resulted in a reduction in the robustness and reliability of the data for Wales.

ONS published an update in July 2026 (Labour Force Survey quality update: July 2026) on their program of work to improve the quality of estimates from the LFS. This included information about the main interventions relating to the LFS made to address quality concerns. Whilst these interventions have resulted in improvements in response levels and rates, levels for certain waves still remain low by historical standards and coherence with other labour market data sources remains a challenge. Headline estimates from the LFS for Wales remain volatile and provide an uncertain view of the labour market when viewed in isolation.

ONS published an update on their plans for improving Economic Statistics in July 2026 as part of their response to the Devereux Review of the Office for National Statistics. The update details the developments that ONS have made across a range of economic and labour market data sources in order to restore trust and improve the quality of these statistics, and the impact of these changes. These include:

improving achieved sample sizes in the LFS
continued assessment of the design changes made to the TLFS
expanding electronic data collection of the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE)

Estimates from January to March 2025 fully reflect improvements to LFS data collection introduced from January 2024, though volatility remains, especially for mid-2023, 2024, and smaller breakdowns. ONS advise caution when interpreting short-term changes and a focus on longer term trends is recommended. While the LFS represents the primary labour market data source, we continue to recommend that users consider LFS estimates alongside other labour market data sources, such as the APS, workforce jobs, claimant count, HMRC PAYE RTI data.

Headline estimates from the LFS for Wales remain volatile and provide an uncertain view of the labour market when viewed in isolation. Given this, we continue to recommend that consideration should be given to the trends exhibited by other sources. Headline labour market indicators from the APS have been added to this report in order to provide a more rounded picture of the labour market in Wales.

For further information on the interventions ONS have made to improve the quality of LFS and APS labour market estimates and our advice on using these statistics for Wales, please see our Chief Statistician’s update: measuring the labour market in Wales.

ONS published an update on the quality of the APS in September 2026, highlighting the declining response rates and reduced sample sizes following recent changes to the survey. ONS advise users to interpret estimates from the APS carefully and consider published quality measures where available.

The APS has seen a fall in sample sizes over recent years, given this and the fact that the survey has not been reweighted to latest population estimates, these estimates are designated as official statistics.

ONS has confirmed that it will not seek to regain accredited official statistics status for the LFS and APS. Instead, they are focusing its efforts on ensuring that the Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS) meets the requirements for accreditation, with OSR agreeing to this approach.

It is still appropriate to use these statistics, however users should note the increased uncertainty around estimates derived from the APS. At a national level, estimates continue to provide a reasonable indication of trends for Wales, particularly if used as part of a basket of indicators with alternative sources such as:

HMRC real time information on paid employees
data on workforce jobs
the claimant count

Estimates for smaller geographies or population sub-groups, however, are less reliable.

The Welsh Government revisions policy is available from the Statistics and Research website. Where the data is not from the Welsh Government, the revisions policy of the individual Government department is followed. The majority of the data in this release is from the ONS and their revisions policy (ONS) applies.

Information on the reconciliation of estimates of jobs between the LFS and WFJ are available on ONS’ website. Jobs vacancies are measured separately by the Vacancy Survey (ONS).

From June 2015 the Claimant Count statistics were designated as experimental (now official statistics in development) due to the impact of Universal Credit. Universal Credit is designed so a broader span of claimants are required to look for work than under Jobseeker's Allowance.

This meant that once Universal Credit was fully rolled out, the Claimant Count was higher than it would otherwise have been under Jobseeker's Allowance. The impact increased as the roll-out of Universal Credit progressed and the seasonally-adjusted claimant count series become more volatile. Further information is available in the claimant count revision update on the ONS website.

Timeliness and punctuality

This release follows the ONS publication schedule of labour market data, available on the National Statistics Release Calendar (GOV.UK). The date of last update and next update for each data source is listed in the timeliness and punctuality section of the labour market overview report.

Accessibility and clarity

Much of the data behind the charts shown in this bulletin can be found on StatsWales. This bulletin covers important statistics for Wales as a whole, but additional breakdowns alongside comparisons to other UK countries are also available on StatsWales and the ONS website for:

age
sex
disability
ethnicity

Links to additional information

Comparability and coherence

Labour Force Survey (LFS) and Annual Population Survey (APS)

Estimates of employment, unemployment and economic inactivity are available from both the LFS and the APS. Estimates from the LFS are based on a rolling quarter and are updated monthly. The sample sizes are too low in the LFS to produce reliable estimates for geographies below Wales level.

Estimates from the APS are based on a rolling 12 months, updated each quarter. The APS uses a bigger sample than the LFS so is used to produce estimates for geographies in Wales. At Wales level, the APS is a slightly more robust measure than the LFS but it is less timely and slower to adapt to changes in the labour market.

Labour market statistics for Wales using APS estimates are published quarterly on the Welsh Government website.

Employment and Workforce Jobs

Employment figures differ between the LFS estimates and Workforce Jobs. Primarily this is because people with more than one job are counted once in the LFS but more than once in Workforce Jobs. The LFS does not cover people living in most types of communal establishments and Workforce Jobs excludes unpaid family workers.

ILO Unemployment and Claimant Count

There are 2 different measures of unemployment used in official UK statistics:

the headline International Labour Organisation (ILO) measure recorded by the LFS
the claimant count measure

Each is subject to advantages and disadvantages.

The headline ILO measure is a count of those who are out of work and:

want a job, or have actively sought work in the last 4 weeks and are available to start work in the next 2 weeks
those who are out of work, have found a job and are waiting to start in the next 2 weeks

It is the broader measure of unemployment. However, it is sourced from a survey so the results are subject to sampling error. Wales data is subject to higher variability than UK level data because of the smaller sample size.

The claimant count is a count of all those claiming unemployment related benefits (currently Jobseekers Allowance plus some claimants of Universal Credit). As such it excludes those who are unemployed who are not eligible to claim, and those who do not wish to claim. However, it is a count of all claimants and is not subject to any sampling variability. It can therefore be disaggregated to very high levels of detail, and in particular, changes measured over the short term are more robust than for the headline unemployment measure.

Redundancies

ONS publish estimates on the number of redundancies and potential redundancies for UK countries and English regions. The redundancy figures for Wales are based on a small sample size and are therefore volatile, and are often suppressed on disclosure grounds. Data and further information on these topics can be accessed via the ONS published tables.

Technical notes

Some of the data in this bulletin are presented as index numbers. Index numbers take the data for each time period and divide them by the figure for the reference period, and multiply the result by 100. A figure of above 100 for a given time period then indicates that the figure is higher than that for the reference period, whilst a figure of below 100 indicates that it is lower than that for the reference period. Data on workforce jobs are presented as indices referenced to 10 years prior to the latest period.

Data series shown are seasonally adjusted unless stated otherwise. Seasonal adjustment is the process of removing variations associated with the time of year from a time-series and enables comparisons of labour market statistics to be made since the previous quarter or previous month. Labour market data for Wales is seasonally adjusted but for geographies within Wales only non-seasonally adjusted data is available.

Statement of compliance with the Code of Practice for Statistics

Our statistical practice is regulated by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR). OSR sets the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics that all producers of official statistics should adhere to.

All of our statistics are produced and published in accordance with a number of statements and protocols to enhance trustworthiness, quality and value. These are set out in the Welsh Government’s Statement of Compliance.

These official statistics (OSR) and official statistics in developmentt (OSR)demonstrate the standards expected around trustworthiness, quality and public value in the following ways.

Trustworthiness

The data for this release have been calculated from a variety of data sources, including:

LFS
APS
RTI PAYE
Public Sector Employment (PSE)
Workforce Jobs
Claimant Count

These datasets are produced and managed by the ONS, HMRC and DWP, and are tabulated by Welsh Government statisticians. The focus is on ensuring that the statistics, data and explanatory material is presented impartially and objectively.

All personal data underlying these statistics are processed in accordance with the requirements of the Data Protection Act 2018.

This release is published in an orderly, pre-announced manner on the Welsh Government website at 9:30am on the day of publication. All statistical releases referenced in this report are available to download for free.

All outputs adhere to the Code of Practice by pre-announcing the date of publication through the upcoming calendar web pages. Access to the data during processing is restricted to those involved in the production of the statistics, quality assurance and for operational purposes. Pre-release access is restricted to eligible recipients in line with the Code of Practice (UK Statistics Authority).

The published figures are compiled by professional analysts using the latest available data and applying methods using their professional judgement and analytical skillset.

Quality

The sources for the data in this release are:

LFS (ONS)
APS (ONS)
RTI PAYE data (HMRC, ONS)
Public Sector Employment (PSE) (ONS)
Workforce Jobs (ONS)
Claimant Count (ONS)

ONS have stated that there is an increasing challenge to maintain response rates for the LFS which has resulted in a reduction in the robustness and reliability of the data for Wales. Due to this, LFS-based labour market statistics are designated as official statistics. The LFS represents the primary labour market data source, however we continue to recommend that consideration should be given to the trends exhibited by other sources.

APS labour market estimates were previously classed as accredited official statistics. The APS has seen a fall in sample sizes over recent years, given this and the fact that the survey has not been reweighted to latest population estimates, the OSR has agreed that this accreditation should be suspended and that the estimates should be re-designated as official statistics (ONS).

It is still appropriate to use these APS statistics, however users should note the increased uncertainty around estimates derived from the APS. At a national level, estimates continue to provide a reasonable indication of trends for Wales, particularly if used as part of a basket of indicators with alternative sources such as:

HMRC real time information on paid employees
data on workforce jobs
the claimant count

Estimates for smaller geographies or population sub-groups, however, are less reliable.

All stages in the collection, validation and production of these statistics are led by professional statisticians and are produced free from any political interference. All statistics are quality-assured prior to publication.

Statistics published by Welsh Government adhere to the Statistical Quality Management Strategy which supplements the Quality pillar of the Code of Practice for Statistics and the European Statistical System principles of quality for statistical outputs. In particular, we aim to provide advice on the quality of the various statistics presented to enable users to understand how they can best be used.

Value

The official statistics in this release show the trends in the Welsh labour market across a variety of metrics alongside comparisons with the UK. These statistics have been published at the earliest opportunity to assist users in understanding the latest trends in the labour market. This bulletin will be updated on a monthly basis throughout the year including the latest available statistics at the time of publication.

These statistics are used in a variety of ways. Some examples of these are:

advice to ministers
to inform education and employability policy decision making process in Wales

This release is accompanied by StatsWales tables, a free to use service that allows visitors to view, manipulate, create and download data.

The commentary and notes in the release have been developed to try to make the information as accessible as possible to the widest range of users.

You are welcome to contact us directly with any comments about how we meet these standards. Alternatively, you can contact OSR by emailing regulation@statistics.gov.uk or via the OSR website.

Well-being of Future Generations Act (WFG)

The Well-being of Future Generations Act 2015 is about improving the social, economic, environmental and cultural wellbeing of Wales. The Act puts in place seven wellbeing goals for Wales. These are for a more equal, prosperous, resilient, healthier and globally responsible Wales, with cohesive communities and a vibrant culture and thriving Welsh language. Under section (10)(1) of the Act, the Welsh Ministers must (a) publish indicators (“national indicators”) that must be applied for the purpose of measuring progress towards the achievement of the wellbeing goals, and (b) lay a copy of the national indicators before Senedd Cymru. Under section 10(8) of the Well-being of Future Generations Act, where the Welsh Ministers revise the national indicators, they must as soon as reasonably practicable (a) publish the indicators as revised and (b) lay a copy of them before the Senedd. These national indicators were laid before the Senedd in 2021. The indicators laid on 14 December 2021 replace the set laid on 16 March 2016. This release includes data related to the following national indicator:

(21) percentage of people in employment

Information on the indicators, along with narratives for each of the wellbeing goals and associated technical information is available in the Wellbeing of Wales report.

This release includes contextual indicators, namely the basket of indicators presented in the Wellbeing report in the previous link.

As a national indicator under the Act they must be referred to in the analyses of local wellbeing produced by public services boards when they are analysing the state of economic, social, environmental and cultural wellbeing in their areas.

The Act states national milestones must be set that “…the Welsh Ministers consider would assist in measuring whether progress is being made towards the achievement of the wellbeing goals.” In doing so Welsh Ministers must specify how we know that a national milestone has been achieved and the time by which it is to be achieved.

National milestones are not performance targets for any individual organisation, but are collective measures of success for Wales.

In this release indicator (21) percentage of people in employment corresponds to the milestone “Eradicate the gap between the employment rate in Wales and the UK by 2050, with a focus on fair work and raising labour market participation of under-represented groups”. Further information on the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015.

The statistics included in this release could also provide supporting narrative to the national indicators and be used by public services boards in relation to their local wellbeing assessments and local wellbeing plans.