Adroddiad
Gwyddoniaeth Ymchwil Tystiolaeth: modelu'r gaeaf 2026 i 2027 - Part 2: headline results
Mae'r papur hwn yn darparu senarios wedi'u modelu ar gyfer ffliw, COVID-19 a feirws syncytiol anadlol (RSV) ar gyfer tymor y gaeaf sydd i ddod.
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Acute respiratory infections
Table 1: Headline results – acute respiratory infections
| Heading | Subheading | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| Combined | Admissions | The combined MLS and RWC admissions scenario anticipate peaks on 24 December 2026 of 214 and 258 daily admissions respectively. |
| Combined | Bed occupancy | The combined MLS and RWC occupancy scenarios estimate a peak of 1,694 and 2,118 beds respectively in the first week of January 2027. |
| Flu | Admissions | During the 2025 to 2026 winter, there were 3,513 flu admissions with a peak of 56 which occurred in the last week of December 2025. Three of the four flu scenarios estimate peaks of 78, 70 and 60 daily admissions in the last two weeks of December 2026, and a much lower peak for the high vaccine coverage scenario of 26 admissions estimated to occur mid-January 2027. |
| Flu | Bed occupancy | In the 2025 to 2026 winter, flu occupancy peaked at 286 beds on 4 January 2026. Three of the four flu scenarios estimate peaks of 660, 578 and 503 beds occupied per day in the last week of December 2026, and a much lower peak for the high vaccine coverage scenario of 220 beds estimated to occur on 22 January 2027. |
| RSV age 0 to 4 years | Admissions | During the 2025 to 2026 winter, there were 1,004 RSV paediatric admissions with a peak of 19 admissions in the third week of December 2025. The scenarios estimate daily peaks of 13 to 14 RSV paediatric admissions, expected to occur around 20 December 2026. |
| RSV age 0 to 4 years | Bed occupancy | Bed occupancy due to RSV in children aged 0 to 4 years peaked at 31 beds per day between 18 to 20 December 2025. The RSV bed occupancy modelling scenarios estimate peaks of 30-33 paediatric beds being occupied on 20 to 21 December 2026. |
| RSV age 75 to 79 years | Admissions | During the 2025 to 2026 winter season, there were a total of 180 RSV admissions among older adults (75-79 years) with the daily admissions peaking at 3 admissions on 15 January 2026. The modelled scenarios estimate peaks of up to 2 daily admissions between 31 December 2026 and 2 January 2027. |
| RSV age 75 to 79 years | Bed occupancy | Bed occupancy due to RSV in older adults (75 to 79 years) peaked at 35 beds per day between 26 to 27 January 2026. The bed occupancy modelling scenarios estimate peaks of 23 to 31 beds per day on 8 to 9 January 2027. |
| COVID-19 | Admissions | The number of admissions due to COVID-19 totalled 1,551 during the 2025 to 2026 winter. The peak daily admissions of 24 occurred in the first week of October 2025. The peaks of the modelled scenarios are estimated to range from 13 to 40 daily admissions and are estimated to occur on 03 October 2026. |
| COVID-19 | Bed occupancy | During the 2025 to 2026 winter, there was a daily maximum of 264 beds occupied due to COVID-19 on 9 October 2025. The COVID-19 bed occupancy modelling provides a wide range of scenarios estimating peaks of 63, 264 and 543 beds on 9 to 13 October 2026. |
Primary care
Table 2: Headline results – primary care
| Heading | Subheading | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| ARI GP consultation rates | GP rates -Children (age 0 to 4) | ARI GP consultation rates in children (aged 0 to14 years inclusive) peaked at 70.9, 69.4 and 31.8 during the winters of 2023 to 2024, 2024 to 2025, and 2025 to 2026, respectively. For children (aged 0 to 14 years), the ARI GP consultation rate modelling estimates a wide range of scenarios where the peaks reach are 261.5, 45.6 and 14.0 consultations per 100,000 GP population, which are estimated to occur on 31 October 2026, 01 November 2026, and 10 to 11 December 2026. |
| ARI GP consultation rates | GP rates -Adults (age 15 years or older) | ARI GP consultation rates in adults (aged 15 years and above) peaked at 26.0, 23.4, and 12.6 during the winters of 2023 to 2024, 2024 to 2025, and 2025 to 2026, respectively. Under two of the modelling scenarios, the peaks of 54.5 and 13.9 are estimated to occur on or around the bank holidays at Christmas and New Year. The third scenario provides a lower peak of 7.6 on 3 November 2026. |
| 111 calls | Respiratory 111 calls | 2025 to 2026 winter shows a moderate peak of 130 calls which occurred on 1 January 2026. The 111 calls modelling scenarios estimate peaks of 116, 147 and 169 may occur on 29 December 2026 and early January 2027. |
Respiratory Emergency Department attendances and ambulance calls
Table 3: Headline results – respiratory ED attendances and ambulance calls
| Heading | Subheading | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| Emergency department | Attendances due to respiratory illness | In the 2025 to 2026 winter, there were 49,320 ED attendances due to respiratory problems and attendances peaked at 307 in the first week of January 2025. The modelling scenarios estimate peaks of 417, 301 and 261 ED attendances in last week of December 2026. |
| Ambulance calls | 999 calls due to breathing problems | In the 2025 to 2026 winter, there were 28,760 ambulance calls due to breathing problems with a peak of 182 ambulance calls occurring on 02 January 2026. The modelling scenarios estimate peaks of 141, 202, or 254 calls between 30 December 2026 and 2 January 2027. |